In November 2021, during the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland, leaders of 144 nations, including Indonesia, signed the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forest and Land Use, or the Glasgow Declaration. The declaration constitutes an agreement to work collectively to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation.
In Indonesia, efforts to halt deforestation or the loss of natural forests did not begin with the declaration. A decade earlier, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono signed Presidential Instruction No. 10/2011, commonly referred to as the Moratorium Instruction (Inpres Moratorium), prohibiting the issuance of conversion permits in primary natural forests and protected peatlands. President Joko Widodo continued this policy by issuing Presidential Instruction No. 8/2018, or the Oil Palm Moratorium (Inpres Moratorium Sawit), which was intended to optimize existing oil palm plantations and halt deforestation driven by palm oil expansion.
Indonesia also ratified the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global temperature increases to below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit the rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Within this framework, the Government of Indonesia issued Presidential Regulation No. 98/2021 on the Implementation of Carbon Pricing and elaborated it in greater detail through Minister of Environment and Forestry Decree No. 168/2022 on Indonesia’s FOLU Net Sink 2030 for Climate Change Control.
These policies led to falls in deforestation rates in Indonesia for five consecutive years starting in 2017. However, in 2022, Indonesian deforestation rates began to rise again, as shown in the graph below. Deforestation in Indonesia subsequently surged in 2025.
Stages and Data Processing: The 2025 deforestation map was produced using deep learning modeling on Sentinel satellite imagery. The stages were as follows.
Deforestation modelling. Knowledge accumulated to date – from field monitoring and deforestation data for 2023 and 2024 – was modelled with U-Net deep learning. This model was then trained on 10-meter resolution Sentinel satellite imagery.
Defining scoping areas (scoping area). Monthly deforestation alerts produced by the University of Maryland (usually referred to as GLAD alerts) were compiled. For efficiency, only high-confidence alerts were collected. These alerts were then “bound” or aggregated in bounding boxes with search radii of 10,240 meters. These bounding boxes then became the scoping areas.
Deforestation Model the developed deforestation model was then run on 10-meter resolution Sentinel-2 satellite imagery in the defined scoping areas.
Areas where deforestation was identified (indicative deforestation) were overlaid with forest cover maps. Four forest cover references were used: (1) MapBiomas Indonesia; (2) land cover maps produced by the Ministry of Forestry; (3) tropical-moist forest (TMF) data produced by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre; and (4) the Forest Persistence dataset produced by Google.
Verification processes: Indicative deforestation outside the four forest cover references (forest-reference area) were inspected visually. Due to the large numbers of polygons and limited time available, polygons smaller than one hectare could not be inspected and were consequently excluded from the deforestation area. For indicative deforestation inside forest-reference area, visual inspections and historical screening (temporal filtering) were conducted on areas larger than 10 hectares, as well as on all areas under 10 hectares located inside concessions and conservation areas. Areas identified as false positives or not having deforestation were removed from the dataset, whereas areas that were not inspected (below 10 hectares) were included as deforestation areas.
Verifications were also carried out through field visits and on-the-ground documentation. In total, Auriga Nusantara conducted field visits covering 49,321 hectares of deforestation sites – equivalent to 11% of total deforestation in 2025 – across 38 villages in 28 regencies spanning 16 provinces in Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Nusa Tenggara, the Maluku Archipelago, and Papua.
Filtering: Focusing on deforestation caused by human activity (anthropogenic deforestation), filtering was conducted to exclude deforestation areas resulting from landslides or river shifts. For example, 11,693 hectares of forest cover were lost due to landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra in the hydrometeorological disaster at the end of 2025. Loss of forest cover due to river shifts was also relatively prevalent in conservation areas.
Accuracy Assessment:. To determine the level of precision of the 2025 deforestation data, an accuracy assessment was conducted by visually inspecting deforestation polygons using PlanetScope imagery with a spatial resolution of 3.7 meters. The polygons selected for inspection were chosen randomly using a stratified random sampling method. Deforestation polygons were grouped by area, namely: <0.5 ha, 0.5–1 ha, 1–5 ha, 5–10 ha, 10–50 ha, and>50 ha. The number of samples was determined using the Slovin formula with a 5% margin of error.
Results of this accuracy assessment showed the 2025 deforestation data having an accuracy level of 89%, as presented in the table below.
| Deforestation Area | Accuracy Test | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strata (ha) | Area (ha) | Polygons | Sample Polygons | TRUE | Accuracy |
| <0,5 | 59.743 | 322.725 | 261 | 227 |
87%
|
| 0,5 – 1 | 58.260 | 84.211 | 69 | 61 |
88%
|
| 1 – 5 | 149.159 | 77.445 | 63 | 59 |
94%
|
| 5 – 10 | 44.585 | 6.495 | 6 | 6 |
100%
|
| 10 – 50 | 69.113 | 3.648 | 3 | 3 |
100%
|
| > 50 | 52.892 | 432 | 1 | 1 |
100%
|
| Total | 433.751 | 494.956 | 403 | 357 |
89%
|
With the methodology outlined above, deforestation in Indonesia by 2025 reached 433,751 hectares, an increase of 66% compared to the 261,575 hectares recorded for the previous year. The largest area of deforestation once again occurred in Kalimantan, followed by Sumatra. Papua, which ranked fourth in 2024, rose to third place in 2025, overtaking Sulawesi.
The following table displays the deforestation data per major island in Indonesia for the years 2023-2025.
| Island | Deforestations (ha) | Expansion 2025 vs 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Hectares | Percent | |
| Kalimantan | 124.611 | 129.896 | 158.283 | 28.387 | 22% |
| Sumatera | 33.311 | 91.248 | 144.150 | 52.901 | 58% |
| Papua | 55.981 | 17.341 | 77.678 | 60.337 | 348% |
| Sulawesi | 36.814 | 17.361 | 39.685 | 22.324 | 129% |
| Maluku | 4.034 | 3.537 | 7.527 | 3.989 | 113% |
| Bali & Nusa Tenggara | 2.052 | 1.780 | 4.209 | 2.429 | 136% |
| Jawa | 582 | 411 | 2.221 | 1.810 | 440% |
| Total | 257.385 | 261.575 | 433.751 | 172.177 | 66% |
Deforestation occurred in all Indonesian provinces except the Jakarta Special Capital Region and the Special Region of Yogyakarta. Where the top ten provinces for deforestation in 2024, in order, were: (1) East Kalimantan, (2) West Kalimantan, (3) Central Kalimantan, (4) Riau, (5) South Sumatra, (6) Jambi, (7) Aceh, (8) North Kalimantan, (9) Bangka Belitung, and (10) North Sumatra, the top ten ranking in 2025 shifted to: (1) Central Kalimantan, (2) East Kalimantan, (3) Aceh, (4) West Kalimantan, (5) Central Papua, (6) West Sumatra, (7) North Sumatra, (8) North Kalimantan, (9) Riau, and (10) Highland Papua.
Three provinces that experienced catastrophic landslides and flooding in northern Sumatra at the end of 2025
recorded dramatic increases in deforestation: Aceh (426%), North Sumatra (281%), and West Sumatra
(1,034%).
Deforestation occurred in 383 regencies/municipalities, or 74% of Indonesia’s total of 514, down from 428 in
the previous year. The top ten regencies for deforestation were in Kalimantan and Papua, accounting for
95,733 hectares or 22% of national deforestation.
Seen in terms of land control status, 307,861 hectares (71%) of deforestation occurred inside forest estates
managed by the Ministry of Forestry, while 125,890 hectares occurred in other land use areas (APL) managed
by regional governments or land/concession holders.
Deforestation in conservation areas surged from 7,704 hectares in 2024 to 25,077 hectares in 2025 This
deforestation occurred in 163 conservation areas. The top ten conservation areas alone accounted for 17,153
hectares, or 68% of total deforestation within all conservation areas.
Deforestation of 156,463 hectares – excluding double counting in overlapping habitats – occurred in 29
million hectares of tiger, rhino, elephant and orangutan habitats.
In late December 2024, two months after the inauguration of President Prabowo Subianto and Vice President
Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the Government of Indonesia launched a food security program allocating 20.6 million
hectares of the forest estate for food, energy, and water reserves. A total of 78,213 hectares, or 18% of
national deforestation occurred within these designated areas.
Around 44% of deforestation occurred inside concession areas, with forestry concessions accounting for the
highest percentage (58%). The majority of deforestation in concessions (65%) occurred in Kalimantan.
Deforestation amounting to 41,162 hectares occurred inside 1,140 mining permit or concession areas, with the
top ten accounting for 22% (8,929 hectares).
Deforestation amounting to 37,910 hectares occurred inside 719 oil palm concessions throughout 2025, with
the top ten concessions accounting for 36% (13,610 hectares).
Deforestation amounting to 110,898 hectares occurred inside 486 forestry concessions, with 74,409 hectares
in logging concessions, 33,063 hectares in pulpwood concessions, 671 hectares in ecosystem restoration
concessions, and 2,754 hectares in other forestry concessions.
Deforestation occurred in 212 pulpwood concessions, with the top ten accounting for 34 percent.
Deforestation occurred in 237 logging concessions, with the top ten accounting for 28 percent.
Deforestation by province Deforestation by district Deforestation in conservation areas Deforestation in habitats of iconic megafauna Deforestation within concessions
Of 433,751 hectares of deforestation area, 166,590 hectares are above 5 hectares deforestation spots. 62% of deforestation occurred on spots smaller than 5 hectares, with 149,159 hectares occurring on 1 to 5 hectare spots.”
During the Joko Widodo presidency, particularly the second term, environmental protection weakened, especially with the enactment of the Job Creation Law or Omnibus Law. For example, the requirement for every region to maintain at least 30% forest cover was removed from regulatory text. Further, government projects, particularly those labeled National Strategic Projects, were afforded flexibility to encroach on forest estates. Such projects are often not accompanied by adequate planning, including spatial planning.
The Prabowo–Gibran presidential era appears to be persisting with this policy. Its doggedness in continuing the food estate program in Merauke is one such example. The government is developing rice fields in Merauke while, at the same time, eradicating rice fields in Sulawesi for smelter construction and nickel mining expansion. Not only that, these nickel mines have triggered the destruction of sago plants in eastern Indonesia, despite sago being a staple food in the region.
At the end of December 2024, two months after the inauguration of Prabowo–Gibran, the government launched a program to designate 20 million hectares of forest for food, energy, and water reserves. As things progressed, the total area became 20.6 million hectares. Auriga Nusantara analysis shows 8.8 million hectares of natural forest inside these designated reserves, and 18% of deforestation in 2025 occurring within such areas. This deforestation was driven by populist food programs, such as the Community Ricefield Development or Cetak Sawah Rakyat (CSR) program in Central Kalimantan – the province with the highest deforestation area in 2025, despite ranking third in 2024.
The issuing of conversion permits for mining, oil palm plantations, and industrial timber plantations in areas with natural forest is another major driver of deforestation. Auriga Nusantara’s analysis indicates that, as of 2024, there were 9.6 million hectares of natural forest cover within conversion concessions. In 2025, deforestation inside these concessions reached 114,823 hectares, or 26% of national deforestation.
Additionally, the release of forest estate to become other land use (APL) areas, despite still having natural forest cover, often marks the initial step towards deforestation, as logging inside APL areas is not against the law. Such forest estate releases frequently occur to accommodate specific concessions or at the request of regional governments through spatial planning revisions (RTRW). As of 2024, there were 10.2 million hectares of natural forest inside APL areas, and in 2025, deforestation in such areas reached 125,997 hectares, or 28% of national deforestation.
Kalimantan once again recorded the greatest extent of deforestation, making it the region with Indonesia’s highest deforestation rate for consecutive years since 2013, or for 13 years in a row. However, the greatest increase in deforestation in 2025 occurred in Papua, with 60,337 hectares positioning the island in third place behind Kalimantan and Sumatra, overtaking Sulawesi which ranked third for deforestation in 2024.
Government programs, such as National Strategic Projects and food estates, are key drivers of increasing deforestation in Papua. Infrastructure development, which frequently follows fragmentation to form new administrative regions, has also contributed to forest loss on the island. Similarly, the expansion of monoculture commodities, particularly oil palm, has further accelerated deforestation.
This combination of factors must be afforded serious attention in efforts to curb deforestation in Papua moving forward. Simulations conducted by Auriga Nusantara in Aceh and Riau show that deforestation surges once palm oil mills begin operating, and the closer an area is to a mill, the higher its deforestation rate will be. A similar phenomenon has occurred in Sulawesi and North Maluku since nickel smelters began operating in 2016. Accordingly, infrastructure development and fragmentation of administrative regions in Papua will make the establishment of new mills or processing industries a likelihood. Moreover, most oil palm plantations in Papua are still young and are expected to reach peak production within the next 5–10 years, increasing the need for processing mills. If such mills do appear, and infrastructure continues to improve, how can deforestation rates on the island be held back?
Expansion of industrial commodities remains a major threat to Indonesia’s remaining natural forests. The development of new oil palm plantations is a primary driver of deforestation in Sumatra, as has happened in Sijunjung Protection Forest in West Sumatra. Deforestation for oil palm development has even encroached into conservation areas like Rawa Singkil Wildlife Sanctuary in Aceh.
Deforestation from oil palm expansion has tended to slow, partly due to market saturation. However, government biodiesel subsidy policies, unaccompanied by safeguard mechanisms for forests, continue to drive deforestation. After previously mandating a biodiesel blend containing 30% palm oil (B30), which then increased to B35, since early 2025, the government has been applying its B40 policy.
In Kalimantan, the main driver of deforestation is the expansion of pulpwood plantations for the pulp and paper industry. The issuing of a license to build the giant PT Phoenix Resources International pulp mill in Tarakan, North Kalimantan, is the main cause, as the mill lacks its own managed supplier concessions. Much of the deforestation occurring in Central and East Kalimantan leads to this mill.
The global boom in electric vehicles is a driver of nickel mining and processing industry expansion. Permits for these industries being issued without clarity over raw material sources, particularly to avoid deforestation, resulted in a surge in deforestation in Sulawesi and North Maluku.
Nickel mining is nothing new in Sulawesi, and dates back to the 1930s, with nickel smelters being in operation since 1973. Prior to 2014, only three smelters were operating in Sulawesi, before the number grew rapidly during the Joko Widodo presidency. From 2014 to 2024, at least 16 new nickel smelters began operating on the island, which has one of the world’s highest levels of endemism.
Rising gold prices have also contributed to deforestation. Notably, two gold mining concessions – PT Agincourt Resources and PT Blok Waringin Agung – rank among the top ten deforesters among mining concessions.
One effect of Indonesia’s convoluted regulatory framework is difficulty in recognizing whether deforestation is legal or illegal. While many regulations aim to protect forests, numerous loopholes render them unprotected.
In a presentation to Commission IV of the Republic of Indonesia House of Representatives (DPR RI) on July 15, 2025, Auriga Nusantara revealed that, as of 2024, 41.6 million hectares, or 44% of Indonesia’s natural forest cover, had no legal protection. Under the current situation, causing forest loss is still possible through legally permissible mechanisms, such as conversion permit issuance or spatial plan revisions.
Of all deforestation in 2025, the only deforestation that could be directly classified as illegal was deforestation in conservation areas (20,077 hectares), in protection forests (80,023 hectares), logging concessions (74,409 hectares), and ecosystem restoration concessions (617 hectares), totaling 180,370 hectares or 42% of national deforestation. In other words, 58% of deforestation in 2025 constituted legal deforestation.
Currently, government conservation efforts tend to focus only on designated conservation areas within the forest estate. These include natural sanctuaries such as nature reserves and wildlife sanctuaries; and conservation estates such as national parks and grand forest parks. Indonesia currently has 22.1 million hectares of conservation areas.
However, a large number of ecologically important areas lie outside conservation areas. These include 22.8 million hectares of habitat for iconic species – tigers, rhinos, elephants, and orangutans; and 21.6 million hectares of key biodiversity areas (KBAs) identified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). These areas combined, without double counting, cover 63.5 million hectares.
Deforestation within conservation areas surged from 7,704 hectares in 2024 to 25,077 hectares in 2025, an increase of 225%. Meanwhile, deforestation across all conservation areas reached 186,465 hectares, accounting for 43% of national deforestation.
Legal protection over natural forests should ideally be in the form of a law. However, enacting laws is not easy and often takes years. Even lower tier legislation like government regulations can take considerable time to develop, largely due to the intricacies and complexities involved in the cross-ministerial approvals required in their formulation. Consequently, a presidential regulation would constitute a tactical breakthrough that could act as an emergency brake to address this issue. Thus, it is time for President Prabowo Subianto to issue a presidential regulation on the protection of all remaining natural forests in Indonesia.
In mid-2023, the public was surprised by a proposed revision to the spatial plan for East Kalimantan Province, which would enable the release of 612,355 hectares of forest estate to become other land use (APL) areas, and downgrade the status of 101,788 hectares of forest estate to make it eligible for mining, despite at least 389,596 hectares (55%) of this area having natural forest cover. Meanwhile, several months earlier, the North Kalimantan Provincial Government had proposed a spatial plan revision that would reclassify 762,000 hectares of forest estate. In Aceh, regional government maneuvering is expected to threaten the protected status of the Leuser Ecosystem Area, a designated biosphere reserve and buffer zone for Mount Leuser National Park. These examples highlight the urgent need for instruments to control regional spatial planning revisions, guaranteeing such processes are transparent and ensuring impacted parties are involved so that any revisions are only in the public interest.
As noted above, existing conservation estates are far from sufficient to cover all conservation areas. At least 31,358 hectares of iconic species’ habitats and key biodiversity areas are located inside APL areas. The Ministry of Forestry’s weak conservation performance inside the forest estate necessitates new models for managing conservation areas. Conservation Law No. 32/2024 has opened space for this through its concept of preservation areas. However, the absence of any implementing regulation has meant such areas have yet to be realized. Therefore, the establishment of an implementing regulation should be expedited. Nevertheless, it should be underlined that such preservation areas should adopt new management models; for example, being managed by and for regional governments or local communities, with them being the recipients of any economic benefits, and coordination or supervision by the Ministry of Forestry.
President Prabowo Subianto has reportedly instructed a doubling of the number of forest rangers – a step deserving of appreciation. However, as Auriga Nusantara has previously outlined to Commission IV of the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR RI), forest protection personnel have tended to be concentrated on the island of Java. The same applies to budgeting, with allocations per hectare of forest estate being significantly higher in Java than elsewhere. Therefore, in addition to increasing personnel numbers – or redistributing authority and management functions to regional governments – there is also a need to redistribute personnel so that all remaining natural forest areas have rangers and associated budgets.
Nearly half of deforestation in 2025 occurred inside concession areas. Meanwhile there are more than nine million hectares of natural forest cover remaining within conversion concessions (mining, oil palm, industrial timber). Corporations managing these areas should declare environmental, social, and good governance (ESG commitments), including not perpetrating nor being involved in deforestation.
Perlindungan hutan semestinya dipandang sebagai investasi, selain karena Forest protection should be viewed as an investment, not only because forests provide environmental services for the public, but also because economic activities will be disrupted if the environment is degraded or does not function in the way it should. Therefore, the state should provide incentives to those who protect forests, including local communities, regional governments (provincial, regency, and village), and corporations. In addition to incentives, economic benefits, such as carbon services, should also be accessible to those protecting forests. Such incentives and benefits could serve as both a stimulus for forest protection and a provider of financing for long-term protection efforts by such parties.●
AUTHOR Timer Manurung, Andhika Younastya, Dedy Sukmara, Yustinus Seno, Wahyu Ananta Nugraha, Dendi Alfitrah DATA PROCESSING Andhika Younastya, Anggun Detrina Napitupulu, Bagus Sugiarto, Cecilinia Tika Laura, Dedy Sukmara, Jumrio Nakul, M. Alichamdan, M. Dendi Alfitrah, Wahyu Ananta Nugraha, Yustinus Seno VERIFICATION Achmad Rafly Gymnastiar, Aditya Prima Yudha, Adzra Aqila Muthia, Andhika Younastya, Anggun Detrina Napitupulu, Annisa Meira Nurfauziah, Bagus Sugiarto, Cecilinia Tika Laura, Chairul Soleh, Dedi Septyadi Wibisono, Fadela Yunika Sari, Hafid Azi Darma, Jonathan, Jumrio Nakul, Jundy Zaky Makarim, Luhut Simanjutak, M. Dendi Alfitrah, M. Irfan Nurrahman, M. Irfandi Andriansyah, Muhammad Nabil Astaqafi, Nebo Yok Jonah Marpaung, Reza Fahlevi, Rianti Gina Violeta, Riszki Is Hardianto, Sulih Primara Putra, Supintri Yohar Tri Wahyuni, Valentina Yulia Permatasari, Wahyu Ananta Nugraha, Yanuar Vira Febiyanti, Yudi Nofiandi, Yustinus Seno, Zerin Darma Kusuma ACCURACY ASSESSMENT Dendi Alfitrah, Wahyu Ananta Nugraha, Yustinus Seno, Anggun Detrina Napitupulu, Bagus Sugiarto, Jumrio Nakul. CREATIVE DESIGN M. Alichamdan, M. Fachri, Thoriq Fa'iqoh
CITATION:
Status deforestation in Indonesia 2025, accessed on [DD/MM/YYYY] via the link [LINK]. Auriga Nusantara. 2025
© Auriga Nusantara. 2026.
